Alex Bregman's slow start could cost him millions

Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12 percent clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3 percent walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6 percent league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35 percent worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worst stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each went from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free-agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200M was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100M extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age makes that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.