Oilers Are Better Built for a Deep Playoff Run Than in Years Past

The following spring, in the 2023 Playoffs, the Oilers again allowed boatloads of goals and found a way to frequently self-destruct when they had the lead. They led in all six games against the Golden Knights but only won two en route to a second-round exit. Goaltending and the inability of the defence to take away time and space against the Knights’ top players played a significant role in their elimination. 

So far in this year’s postseason, the Oilers have done a much better job limiting chances against, and they’re keeping the puck out of the net. Here are some key defensive numbers in each of the last three playoffs (Per 60 minutes):

There’s still a lot of hockey left to be played, but there are some encouraging trends here. The Oilers are committing fewer bad pinches, and they’re protecting the slot much more effectively than before. Perhaps the new coaching staff and a more experienced group of skaters can finally sustain a winning brand of hockey. 

Oilers’ Goaltending in the Playoffs

The Oilers have received some spotty goaltending in the playoffs. Mike Smith had a solid first round against the Los Angeles Kings in 2022 but fell apart against the Calgary Flames and Avalanche in the following rounds, posting a .892 save percentage (SV%) in those series. At 40 years old, Smith’s body was clearly having trouble keeping up with the rigours of the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, he went on long-term injured reserve after this run and never played another NHL game.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Stuart Skinner was inexperienced in 2023, getting his first taste of playoff action. He was pulled in four of his 12 starts and finished with a .883 SV%. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, Skinner conceded approximately 0.68 goals above expected per 60 minutes. More games than not, he should have made an additional save, which is crippling in the playoffs, where the margin for error is so thin.  

How has Skinner played in his second postseason run? Early on, he’s been every bit as sharp as he was for most of the regular season. His SV% sits at .919, and unlike last year, he’s saving more goals than expected. Can he continue to pass the test as the playoff matchups get more difficult? That remains to be seen. He was the best player on the ice in a 1-0 win in Game 4, and aside from a couple of hiccups in Game 2, he’s had an excellent series.

Are the Oilers Defending Well Enough to Win the Stanley Cup?

Not every team needs to be the 2012 Kings to win the Stanley Cup. If you have the offensive firepower that the Oilers do, you can get away with the occasional high-scoring affair. But when the chips are down, there must be a team-wide commitment to defence, starting with your top players. McDavid has significantly cut down scoring chances and high-danger chances against early on this postseason, and the Oilers have bought in all the way down the lineup. Ryan McLeod and Corey Perry have been a good shutdown duo in the bottom 6, and the penalty kill is perfect thus far. 

Over the past 10 years (keeping in mind that scoring was lower at the start of the decade than it is now), the average Stanley Cup Champion has finished the playoffs with 2.35 goals-against per hour (GA/60). So far, the Oilers have allowed 2.48 GA/60, fewer than each of the last two champions. Still, there’s no guarantee they can keep it up, and even if they do, there still might be another team good enough to get by them anyway. It’s the most challenging trophy in sports to win for a reason, but the Oilers finally have a formula that can take them to the finish line. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Let’s see where this goes.